Championship Round Preview

Well, boys and girls, Championship weekend is upon us and we have a couple of very intriguing match ups. As you all know, I’m a huge fan of the Pats, and I couldn’t be more freaked out by an AFC championship matchup than I am now. I actually was pulling for the Broncos to win their divisional round game because I felt the Pats matched up much better against the Broncos D. Now, facing Joe Flacco and not Peyton Manning is definitely a plus, but Flacco is playing so well in the playoffs that I almost feel like he’s the hottest QB in the NFL right now. Both teams are relatively healthy considering the time of the year, with the exception of the Pats not having Rob Gronkowski and possibly Danny Woodhead. Let’s take a look at the injury situation for the AFC Championship:

Patriots (-8) vs Ravens: As I mentioned above, Woodhead suffered a sprained thumb in the Divisional round against the Texans. He’s officially listed as probable, and based on his improved participation in practice this week, he seems like a good bet to be just fine for Sunday’s game. The bigger worry with Woodhead are the touches he will lose to Shane Vereen after the monster performance he had last week. Chandler Jones appears to be relatively healthy after he suffered a slight re-aggravation of his sprained ankle against the Texans. He was a full participant in practice Friday and appears to be ready to go. Expect him to have some limitation as it’s very difficult to play full strength with any sort of ankle sprain due to the drop off in stability around the ankle, but he should be productive in bursts. 

For the Ravens, Bernard Pierce is still dealing with a sprained knee and is officially listed as questionable. Word is he will play Sunday, but I can’t see how he’s going to be close to 100%. It seems like Pierce won’t be at full strength leading up to Sunday’s game, although all signs point to him suiting up and being the change of pace back that spells Ray Rice. Other than Pierce, the Ravens enter Sunday’s basically at full strength. 

This is tough game for me to predict. I think the Pats’ offense has a definite advantage over the Ravens’ aging defense, but it always seems like the Ravens give the Pats’ O-line and Tom Brady fits with their coverage packages and blitz schemes. I expect there to be some rough patches early for the Pats’ offense, but they will make adjustments throughout the course of the game. On the other side of the ball, I think the key will be the Pats’ ability to limit big downfield plays on the outside as well as bottling up Rice on screen passes and runs outside the tackles. I think the Pats make just enough plays on D and score a bit too much for Flacco and the Baltimore O to keep up with. I think the Ravens cover, but the Pats win. Patriots 31, Ravens 27

49ers (-4) vs Falcons: This game is a bit more clearcut in my book. In terms of injuries, John Abraham is officially listed as questionable, as he was a limited participant in practice on Friday. From my vantage point, I think this was a calculated decision to allow him some rest time and avoid re-injury at all costs. I think he’s healthier this week than he was last week, as he didn’t get to play in the 2nd half. As for the 49ers, the only lingering injury issue is Justin Smith, although he looked good last week and was well protected by that bulky brace around his elbow to stabilize that triceps injury. He looked like his disruptive self last week, occupying multiple blockers many times throughout the game, so expect the Niners’ defense to be just fine against the Falcons. 

I think this game boils down to how the Falcons handle the pressure the stout Niners’ defense throws at them all day; in particular, the decisions Matt Ryan makes on his feet and if he can stay away from turning the ball over. I think he’ll do a pretty good job, but I think the Niners’ defense and the dynamic play of Colin Kaepernick will be too much. The 49ers cover and win the game outright. 49ers 35, Falcons 24.

Week 14 Recap

Well, Week 14 didn’t go the way I planned. Not sure about you, but I had 4 teams in these playoffs and I’m on the brink of losing all 4 (2 upsets, 2 I probably should lose). The biggest culprits for me were Miles Austin, Vernon Davis, and my trio of Saints (Marques Colston, Lance Moore, Jimmy Graham). All three guys underperformed considerably and may end up costing me dearly.

From an injury standpoint, Week 14 wasn’t terrible, but we did get news that Fred Jackson is out for the year after suffering a grade 2 MCL sprain of his right knee. Shutting him down makes total sense, with the Bills’ season being over already and his extensive history of knee pathology. CJ Spiller becomes the man in Buffalo and should see a huge increase in his value moving forward.

Additionally, we saw a couple of Giants who are gritting out injuries, but really having a hard time with them. Hakeem Nicks had to have X-rays done on his sore knee and seems to have a bout of swelling and soreness each and every week now. To add insult to injury, he came down directly on the knee, causing pain and some missed time during the game. In addition, Ahmad Bradshaw suffered a knee sprain to go along with his already sore foot and neck, so he’s dealing with a trio of painful injuries at the same time. High pain thresholds are one thing, but three injuries (and two involving his legs) at once is tough to deal with and may lead to his workload being decreased, especially with David Wilson’s breakthrough game. I’d expect Nicks to be limited all week and be close to a game time decision while Bradshaw’s news will come out as the week goes on, giving us insight about his Week 15 status. Stay tuned.

And how can we forget Robert Griffin III and his right knee injury. Word is (as I expected) he suffered a sprained lateral collateral ligament (LCL), but the severity seems to be in the grade 1/2 range, which is definitely something that can be played through. What RGIII loses with this injury is some stability in the knee when he cuts or twists, as the LCL is the ligament that connects the femur (thigh bone) to the tibia (shin bone) on the outside of the knee. So anytime a player has LCL involvement and tries to play through it, a brace of varying strength is involved. My expectation is that he will play this week, especially since the severity of the sprain is a grade 1 or 2, which is mild to moderate in nature. However, we’ll wait til Friday to see what his practice participation was like this week.

Quick Hits:

Jay Cutler suffered a “whiplash” type injury on Sunday, which is normally categorized as a muscular injury to the neck muscles. He should receive a ton of treatment this week to help decrease inflammation and soreness and should play this week…Jared Cook seems to have suffered a re-aggravation of his shoulder injury from early in the season. Watch out for him to be limited this week and his availability for Week 15 is up in the air…Ray Rice suffered a hip pointer that’s being classified as “minor”. Wait until later in the week to see if he practices or not this week, but with the Ravens in the thick of the home field advantage race, expect him to play. Click this link (http://tinyurl.com/benbhhw) and scroll down to the Hip Pointer paragraph to gain a better understanding of what this injury entails…Victor Cruz had a monster day on Sunday, but he also hurt his shoulder during the game, requiring sideline evaluation to determine the extent of the injury. He basically played the whole game otherwise, so expect him to be just fine. We’ll monitor it just in case…Dwayne Bowe has two fractured ribs, which means he’ll either be able to play through it and tolerate the pain or his season may be over. More information should come out this week…Marshawn Lynch flared up his low back a little bit during his standout game against the Cardinals. Remember, he’s dealt with back spasms all season and has basically been a “rest” scratch from every Wednesday practice this season. He’ll do the same deal this week and should be fine for Week 15, but back spasms are a tricky, fickle injury, so keep an eye on him…Darren McFadden practiced today, which is a great sign for his availability for Week 15 after re-aggravating his high ankle sprain this past Thursday. If he continues to increase his availability, he should be fine, but monitor his situation closely.

That should cover the biggies. If your leagues are anything like mine, tonight is a VERY important night. Not only are my Pats playing on MNF, but I also need Steven Ridley and Matt Schaub to have huge days and Wes Welker and the Houston Defense to do not so well. So here’s hoping the Pats win 52-45 (wishful thinking, I know).