Well, boys and girls, Championship weekend is upon us and we have a couple of very intriguing match ups. As you all know, I’m a huge fan of the Pats, and I couldn’t be more freaked out by an AFC championship matchup than I am now. I actually was pulling for the Broncos to win their divisional round game because I felt the Pats matched up much better against the Broncos D. Now, facing Joe Flacco and not Peyton Manning is definitely a plus, but Flacco is playing so well in the playoffs that I almost feel like he’s the hottest QB in the NFL right now. Both teams are relatively healthy considering the time of the year, with the exception of the Pats not having Rob Gronkowski and possibly Danny Woodhead. Let’s take a look at the injury situation for the AFC Championship:
Patriots (-8) vs Ravens: As I mentioned above, Woodhead suffered a sprained thumb in the Divisional round against the Texans. He’s officially listed as probable, and based on his improved participation in practice this week, he seems like a good bet to be just fine for Sunday’s game. The bigger worry with Woodhead are the touches he will lose to Shane Vereen after the monster performance he had last week. Chandler Jones appears to be relatively healthy after he suffered a slight re-aggravation of his sprained ankle against the Texans. He was a full participant in practice Friday and appears to be ready to go. Expect him to have some limitation as it’s very difficult to play full strength with any sort of ankle sprain due to the drop off in stability around the ankle, but he should be productive in bursts.
For the Ravens, Bernard Pierce is still dealing with a sprained knee and is officially listed as questionable. Word is he will play Sunday, but I can’t see how he’s going to be close to 100%. It seems like Pierce won’t be at full strength leading up to Sunday’s game, although all signs point to him suiting up and being the change of pace back that spells Ray Rice. Other than Pierce, the Ravens enter Sunday’s basically at full strength.
This is tough game for me to predict. I think the Pats’ offense has a definite advantage over the Ravens’ aging defense, but it always seems like the Ravens give the Pats’ O-line and Tom Brady fits with their coverage packages and blitz schemes. I expect there to be some rough patches early for the Pats’ offense, but they will make adjustments throughout the course of the game. On the other side of the ball, I think the key will be the Pats’ ability to limit big downfield plays on the outside as well as bottling up Rice on screen passes and runs outside the tackles. I think the Pats make just enough plays on D and score a bit too much for Flacco and the Baltimore O to keep up with. I think the Ravens cover, but the Pats win. Patriots 31, Ravens 27
49ers (-4) vs Falcons: This game is a bit more clearcut in my book. In terms of injuries, John Abraham is officially listed as questionable, as he was a limited participant in practice on Friday. From my vantage point, I think this was a calculated decision to allow him some rest time and avoid re-injury at all costs. I think he’s healthier this week than he was last week, as he didn’t get to play in the 2nd half. As for the 49ers, the only lingering injury issue is Justin Smith, although he looked good last week and was well protected by that bulky brace around his elbow to stabilize that triceps injury. He looked like his disruptive self last week, occupying multiple blockers many times throughout the game, so expect the Niners’ defense to be just fine against the Falcons.
I think this game boils down to how the Falcons handle the pressure the stout Niners’ defense throws at them all day; in particular, the decisions Matt Ryan makes on his feet and if he can stay away from turning the ball over. I think he’ll do a pretty good job, but I think the Niners’ defense and the dynamic play of Colin Kaepernick will be too much. The 49ers cover and win the game outright. 49ers 35, Falcons 24.