We had a very, very busy NFL week 6, with some key guys suffering injuries ranging from minor to potentially career ending. Let’s talk about how these key injuries affect your Week 7 lineup and some short term ramifications. Also, some of these injuries will definitely play a role on your teams moving forward, so we’ll also talk a bit about what you can do to counteract these big injuries, possibly wheeling and dealing via trade.
Ray Lewis: Let’s start with the biggest one. Word is that he suffered a complete rupture of one of tendons of his triceps muscle group. Why is this muscle group important? Well, any time we push off and extend our elbows, we’re using the triceps. Any time we try to shed blockers and drive through offensive linemen, we’re using quite a bit of triceps. The main functions of the triceps are to extend (straighten) the elbows and extend (move arm back behind you parallel to your body) the shoulder. These types of injuries usually take a significant amount of time to heal, especially since it’s such a big muscle group and it’s a tendon injury, which takes time to heal. In terms of returning to the field for football-related activities, we’re probably talking 6-8 months before he’s near 100%. However, with his age and the amount of wear and tear on his body, it’s tough to predict how quickly he’ll bounce back from an injury of this nature. The good news is that it’s not a leg issue, which would be very brutal for a guy his age, especially considering how hard he worked to shed weight and regain some of his speed. I can’t imagine Lewis will allow his career to end of this note, so I’d expect him back next season, maybe on a more limited basis. But what about the value of the Baltimore D?? Losing Lewis and Ladarius Webb for the season are huge, especially with Suggs already out for the year. They were already giving up a ton of points by their standards, and it’s only going to get worse moving forward. They’re too good to just fall off the face of the earth, but when you add Haloti Ngata to the list, it doesn’t look pretty. Look for them to drop a few notches, but they should still be a top 10-12 D/ST by the end of the year.
DeMarco Murray: He was just rounding into form and then, BAM, injured foot. Word is he sprained the foot, which if we know from past history (Pierre Garcon, Ben Tate, etc), which is a very fickle injury. It’s so hard to predict how a player will respond coming back from this type of injury because there are so many factors (what part of the foot, which joints if the midfoot is involved, is it a big weight bearing joint, etc). It looked and sounded worse than what they’re saying the prognosis is, but I can see this being a couple week type of injury because he’s a running back, and when you take away a runner’s ability to be dynamic, they just don’t function the same. Now, on the flip side, if Felix Jones (who you should be adding ASAP this week) struggles and doesn’t get the job done, this could turn into a “rushing back too soon” type of thing. I think his prognosis will all depend on how fast he responds to conservative treatment (PRICE- protection, rest, ice, compression, elevation; stretching, soft tissue mobilization, joint work, etc) early on so that he can get back to the aggressive stuff as soon as possible. He’ll definitely be week to week, so be ready to play that game.
Rashard Mendenhall/Issac Redman: Both are very up in the air for this week’s game against the Bengals with an achilles injuryand ankle sprain, respectively. I don’t like Mendenhall’s chances due to the location of his injury (same side as his torn ACL), which I think is a big compensatory pattern issue that needs to be corrected because it’s clear to me that he’s putting too much reliance on his ankle due to not fully trusting that knee yet (at least that’s what I suspect). Redman is coming off an ankle sprain and has a shot to play, but I don’t know about you, but I don’t really want to rely on Redman anyways. I have a feeling both will play, with Mendenhall obviously getting the bulk of the carries if he’s right, but it’s a bit sketchy this week, although they did have the luxury of an extra 3 days off after playing the Thursday night game. Take it day by day.
Jake Locker: I understand if fantasy owners are frustrated with his absence from the Titans’ lineup, but I love the approach the training staff is taking with Locker. He tried coming back, but it was clearly too soon, so they’ve now taken things slowly and allowed him to heal fully before sending him back in. People will ask me, “If it’s his non-throwing shoulder, why has he been out so long?”. Well, it only takes one shot to the shoulder or a defending driving him into the turf after a throw for him to go back to square one. Also, things such as handing the ball off, hiking the ball, holding the ball with two hands on a roll out, etc all involve the left arm as well. And add to the fact that running is one of Locker’s main strengths and you can see why a subluxed shoulder (quick subluxation) and separated AC joint would be difficult to come back from. He’s out this week, with the possibility of returning next week. Play it by ear, but he’s going to need some time to round back into form. Locker should be considered no more than a QB2 at this point moving forward.
Pierre Garcon: MRI results showed an “inflamed capsule under the 2nd toe”. What this means is that the joint capsule surrounding the 2nd “knuckle” on the bottom of the foot is inflamed. This is essentially like having a tender area and banging it against a surface over and over again. Every time he tries to run/sprint/plant/push off, he’s putting extra weight and force through that region, causing more discomfort. These sort of capsule injuries are a type of “itis”, which means an area is inflamed and has swelling in the region. What makes this better? Stop running/sprinting/planting/pushing off: REST. Inflamed regions don’t get better when you continue to pound on it, so look for Garcon to be in “pain management” mode this week in hopes of playing against the Giants. At some point, they’re either going to have to shut him down to let him rest or he’ll just be less than 100% all season. I don’t like the sound of either as a Garcon owner, so you should have a contingency for week 7 just in case.
Jermichael Finley: Another sprained shoulder that’s been slow to heal, he is at the mercy of the position he plays, as it requires a ton of blocking/contact, which doesn’t allow for a quick healing process. The good news was that he was able to play a little over 20 snaps. The bad news is he continues to be limited by the shoulder and has been a non-factor. He actually has had really only 1 good game all season and hasn’t done much otherwise, shoulder injury or not. If he can get healthy, this is his time to shine, with Greg Jennings still hobbled. Look for him to get more involved this week, as there was no reported setback during the game on Sunday. Watch his practice participation and if he’s more involved, he should be good to go for Week 7.
Kevin Kolb: He has officially joined the bruised rib QB fraternity headed by Michael Vick and Tony Romo. Again, this is more of a pain-tolerance type issue more than anything else, but there is a significant amount of rotation that offcurs in the trunk during the throwing motion, which can be affected by limitations in rib mobility. He’s definitely going to be limited to some extent, but they’ll get a flak jacket on him and see what he can tolerate. History (Kolb’s and other rib injuries) says he probably won’t play, but that’s more based on the fact that he hasn’t been the most resilient guy in the world when it comes to injuries. While Kolb is not nearly at the level of those guys, his injury does have a significant effect on the Cards, particularly the WRs. Larry Fitzgerald seems to have a better rapport with John Skelton while Andre Roberts seems to have a better rapport with Kolb. Fitz should be in your lineup regardless, but Roberts is just not the same when Skelton is in the lineup. I’d downgrade Roberts greatly if Skelton gets the start. UPDATE: Why am I updating before I even submitted the post? Because I’m lazy, that’s why. Looks like MRI results came back and showed rib cartilage damage, but no fractures. While the no fracture news is good, the rest of it is not, as rib cartilage has such poor blood supply that it creates a slow healing environment. In addition, the rib cartilage is stressed with the most basic of tasks (taking in a deep breath, twisting the trunk, standing up tall) that it can make it very uncomfortable to perform rigorous tasks such as playing QB in the NFL. He’s said to be out at least a couple weeks, so Skelton looks like the guy.
Trent Richardson: Another guy with a rib cartilage injury, his seems to be minor based on reports I’ve heard. Again, they’ll rest him this week (expect him to be limited basically all week, which is normal) and see how much pain he can tolerate on Sunday. I’d expect him to play unless he suffers a setback.
Aaron Hernandez: He played 38 snaps on Sunday, about 40% of the total offensive snaps for the Pats on Sunday. I can speak to Hernandez from seeing him in person at the game, he looked fantastic. Watching him cut and run prior the game, I felt better about his overall health. Then seeing him plant and run that fade route in the end zone for his touchdown put all concerns at ease. I think he looks as close to 100% as you can coming off a high ankle sprain, and if he came through with no extra swelling/soreness after the week, he will probably see an uptick in his snaps played this week against the Jets. I’d be confident playing him Week 7.
Hakeem Nicks: Only 5 targets, didn’t look 100% , but looked better than he did the last time he attempted to play. I think he’ll get his treatment this week and look better against a bad Redskins secondary. Manning will continue to look his way once he gets back on track.
So now, I wanted to spend some time talking about some guys who either are injured or are coming off injury who are great sell high/buy low candidates that you should be targeting now that we’re nearly halfway through the season.
QBs:
Sell High
Josh Freeman: Finally had a breakout game. If he strings one more good game on top of it, look to unload him to someone who needs bye week help or had Philip Rivers on their roster. You could probably snag a decent WR2/RB2 or flex type of guy to help you get through the bye weeks
Buy Low
Matt Stafford: He’s been very up and down, looking terrible in the first 3 quarters yesterday before putting together some good drives in the 4th. I’d feel good about picking him up if you can get value on him, especially if you need some QB help. I’d be willing to part with two guys to pick him up so long as you’re not giving up more than a WR2/RB2 in either case. I think Stafford is poised for a big second half.
RBs:
Sell High
Shonn Greene: He’s not doing that again, if you can find a sucker in your league to take him off your hands, I’d do it. He may have another good week (or at least dominate carries) with Bilal Powell on the shelf, so wif you can turn Greene into another RB2 or a solid, reliable TE/WR2-3, I’d do it in a heartbeat.
Darren McFadden: He’s coming off a solid Week 6 and looked pretty good overall, but with the state of the Raiders offense and how bad they’ve looked all the way around, I’d sell high on McFadden, especially if he has another good week this coming week. With the numerous bye weeks coming up (with 6 teams out of action this week), other peeps in your league my be looking long and hard on the waiver wire for RB help, but nothing on the wire will come close to an offer for McFadden. This would be a great time to parlay depth at RB for more help at WR or QB while selling a name brand instead of actual production.
Buy Low
Reggie Bush: He didn’t have the greatest week 6, but coming out of a bye, people tend to forget about how good of a start he got off to. He’s also looked remarkably durable and resilient this year, evidenced by not missing any time after injuring his knee. If you can get him cheap, I think he’s definitely worth it as he looks 100% after his knee and hip issues.
Matt Forte: Not that people are crazy down on him, but you haven’t heard his name a lot since he suffered that sprained ankle earlier in the season. He’s been solid, but unspectacular since then. I just love the idea of another owner suffering through the bye week for you, so he’s potentially someone you can steal if you can find a Forte owner in a bind due to the bye weeks (think a 2 for 1 to give the other owner more depth, but you’re always better off getting the best player in the deal)
WRs:
Sell High
Percy Harvin: Not here because he’s dealing with an injury, but he has a definite history of injury problems, especially of the nagging variety. He’s off to a fantastic start, leading the NFL in receptions, but when I think about his offense and how he’s essentially the only legit WR for Christian Ponder to throw to, I would not be averse to trading Harvin for a more established guy who has a history of consistent production (Roddy White, Larry Fitzgerald, Wes Welker) as I see Harvin’s stock dropping in the coming weeks.
Buy Low
Greg Jennings: I know I’ve talked a lot about his nagging groin injury and you could potentially wait one more week and get him dirt cheap, but if you can find a fed up Jennings owner and get him for 50 cents on the dollar, you do it. The groin injury is big, but he’s on a fantastic offense and can really do you a lot of good once fantasy playoff time rolls around as he should be 100% and ready to get back to his old ways by then.
Ziad Dahdul 