Well, the last game of the 2012-13 season is officially upon us and, to be quite honest, I couldn’t be more disgusted with the outcome (I take that back. If you’d have replaced the 49ers with the Giants, then I’d probably boycott the game altogether). The stench of the Patriots performance in the AFC championship two weeks ago has already worn off now that I’ve had time to realize that the better and hotter team definitely won that game. However, there’s just a little something about the Ravens that I dislike, almost as if their hatred for all things Patriots has crossed over into an irrational zone, as if they hate the Patriots because they’ve convinced themselves that they have to. But one positive that’s come out of this most recent Pats-Ravens battle is that it feels like rivalries are slowly beginning to creep back into the NFL, something we haven’t had quite as much over the last decade.
While we’ve had Brady-Manning and Ravens-Steelers over the last decade, both of those rivalries are more natural in nature, with the 2 best QBs at the time facing each other every year and the Ravens and Steelers being division foes. This Pats-Ravens rivalry is a bit different in that it’s developed strictly based on their regular season and playoff meetings, with no other correlation between the two teams. And with Ed Reed speaking to the media yesterday about entertaining the idea of playing for the Pats next year, this rivalry may just be beginning to spread its wings.
Now on to the big game. Let’s take a quick look at each team and touch on some key or nagging injuries that could play a role on the outcome of the game.
Baltimore Ravens:
Dannell Ellerbe (P): There shouldn’t be much limitation Sunday, as he was able to play in the AFC Championship without looking too hindered by his sprained ankle. He was quoted at media day saying that there’s no way he doesn’t play and that if he played in the AFC Championship, it means he’s playing in the Super Bowl. By all accounts, it appears to be a relatively mild to moderate ankle sprain, more of the garden variety than anything to be overly concerned about. I’d expect he’s received a ton of treatment on it over the last two weeks and having that extra week off more than likely did wonders for the irritability levels he may have had otherwise. And with any inflammatory condition (like a sprain), rest is typically the most important and hardest thing to come by, which he’s had more than enough time for this past 1 1/2 weeks. I’d expect him to be pretty close to a full go on Sunday.
Ed Reed (P): He’s had chronic shoulder and neck issues, with the shoulder being more of the issue at this point. But it seems that calling it an “issue” is overstating it. He’s an older player who’s earned the right to rest and sit out practices in an effort to keep him as fresh as possible. There are no indications whatsoever that he’s even limited by this in the slightest. Expect him to be 100% on Sunday, or as close to 100% as a 34 year old safety in his 11th season can be.
Dennis Pitta (P): Listed as having a “thigh” injury, this usually indicates that it’s either a thigh contusion or a quadriceps strain, either of which would require rest/soft tissue mobilization/stretching/modalities to help decrease the flare up. It’s essentially all about limiting inflammation within the tissue so that the muscle/joint can function as optimally as possible. The days off he was given last week are more precautionary than anything else, a luxury at this point of the season. In Pitta’s case, I wouldn’t expect this to limit him too much and think he’ll be just fine come Super Bowl Sunday.
Ray Lewis (P): Well, he’s got his deer and antler juice, so he’s good to go right? (j/k) (kind of). In all seriousness, him and Justin Smith (see below) are basically in the same boat. The bracing they wear is what allows them to continue to play at a high level. Without the bracing, I can’t see a scenario where Lewis or Smith play the way they’ve been playing. Both guys will have surgery in the offseason, at which point they should make pretty healthy recoveries. For this game in particular, expect Lewis to be just fine, using the last few games as a guideline for what to expect. And if he takes a shot of deer juice prior to the game, he’ll be EVEN better.
San Francisco 49ers:
Aldon Smith (P): No worries about his shoulder, as he returned to practice Wednesday and is in no danger of missing the biggest game of his career. He’s had a few nagging injuries in the last few weeks, but seems to be more limited by whether Justin Smith is out there or not rather than his own injuries. No worries on the injury front here.
Ahmad Brooks (P): He was diagnosed with a grade 1 AC joint sprain, which is a sprain of the very end of the collar bone and the bony prominence on the end of the scapula. The good thing about this diagnosis is the “grade 1” part of things, which means it’s just a mild sprain without too much damage to the ligaments that hold the joints together (Remember, sprains happen to ligaments, strains happen to muscles). He’s gotten treatment on it the last two weeks and returned in a limited fashion to practice on Wednesday. This shouldn’t limit him much at all for Sunday’s contest.
Justin Smith (P): Let’s start off by saying he’s not 100% and he’s playing. Ok, now that that’s out of the way, just know that the bracing he wears around his injured elbow does basically two things: 1, it protects the triceps muscle that’s torn from going into ranges of motion that place the most strain on it, essentially locking it into a safe range of motion. 2, it provides stability to the elbow joint to allow it to take on force without worrying about instability. So he will continue to wear the brace and continue to play at a pretty high level, which solidifies the 49ers’ D-line immensely.
49ers (-3.5) vs Ravens:
So now that the injury news is out of the way, how is the game going to play out? In all honesty, this is a tough game to call because we have one team that’s been consistently great all season long (49ers) and one team that’s just on a roll right now (Ravens). Throw in the fact that Colin Kaepernick has 9 games of video to scout in the NFL and that no one has shown the ability to slow down this Pistol offense AND with the Ray-Lewis-Is-Retiring hoopla, it really is difficult to predict what’s going to happen. How do I see it playing out?
I think the big storyline on the field is how the older, slower Ravens D will try to stop the running QB and dominant running game of the 49ers. The Ravens have a unique way of modifying their defensive schemes to whoever they’re playing, regardless of the style of play. They’ve beat two dominant QBs in back to back games and do a great job of limiting big plays down the field. But they’ve played only 1 game this year against a running QB (12/9/12) against the Redskins and RGIII, at which point they were beaten in OT after RGIII left the game with his now-infamous knee injury. My sign of how a team handles a running QB is how that defense handled the running back. If the running back goes off, it shows that the D may be either putting way too much focus on stopping the QB of a read-0ption offense or they just can’t stop the run altogether. Alfred Morris ran for 129 yards and a TD that day, which bodes well for Frank Gore, LaMichael James, and the 49ers running attack. Granted, the Ravens weren’t very good stopping the run all season, but again, when a team is very hot like the Ravens are, all numbers get thrown out the window. But I do see Kaepernick and the 49ers’ rushing attacking having a good day against this slower Ravens D.
On the other side of the ball, the Ravens must do a good job of establishing a running game early on or else Joe Flacco’s deep ball off a play fake won’t do any damage. I think the Ravens have a big enough O-line to have some success against the Niners, but the 49ers’ front seven is as good as it gets, so it won’t come easy. I think Flacco will have a solid game based on the fact that he’s just be unstoppable these days and seems to be really hitting his stride, so I won’t bet against him having a good game Sunday.
So what happens? I see the Ravens being overwhelmed athletically early on with the dynamic 49ers offense, falling behind and abandoning the running game, and putting the entire game on Flacco’s shoulders. And although I see Flacco throwing a couple TDs and moving the ball well downfield, I also see him doing one thing that he’s not done at all this postseason: Turn the ball over. I think he throws 1-2 INTs against this opportunistic 49ers defense, which will be the deciding factor in the 4th quarter. Final score: 49ers 27, Ravens 21
And now a couple fun predictions:
Coin flip: Heads
1st scoring play: David Akers field goal
Longest play of the game: >40 yard pass to Michael Crabtree
MVP: Colin Kaepernick
Enjoy the game folks!! Go Pats!! (oh, wait, you’re saying they’re not there this year? ya, nevermind then)
Ziad Dahdul 