Week 14 Recap

Well, Week 14 didn’t go the way I planned. Not sure about you, but I had 4 teams in these playoffs and I’m on the brink of losing all 4 (2 upsets, 2 I probably should lose). The biggest culprits for me were Miles Austin, Vernon Davis, and my trio of Saints (Marques Colston, Lance Moore, Jimmy Graham). All three guys underperformed considerably and may end up costing me dearly.

From an injury standpoint, Week 14 wasn’t terrible, but we did get news that Fred Jackson is out for the year after suffering a grade 2 MCL sprain of his right knee. Shutting him down makes total sense, with the Bills’ season being over already and his extensive history of knee pathology. CJ Spiller becomes the man in Buffalo and should see a huge increase in his value moving forward.

Additionally, we saw a couple of Giants who are gritting out injuries, but really having a hard time with them. Hakeem Nicks had to have X-rays done on his sore knee and seems to have a bout of swelling and soreness each and every week now. To add insult to injury, he came down directly on the knee, causing pain and some missed time during the game. In addition, Ahmad Bradshaw suffered a knee sprain to go along with his already sore foot and neck, so he’s dealing with a trio of painful injuries at the same time. High pain thresholds are one thing, but three injuries (and two involving his legs) at once is tough to deal with and may lead to his workload being decreased, especially with David Wilson’s breakthrough game. I’d expect Nicks to be limited all week and be close to a game time decision while Bradshaw’s news will come out as the week goes on, giving us insight about his Week 15 status. Stay tuned.

And how can we forget Robert Griffin III and his right knee injury. Word is (as I expected) he suffered a sprained lateral collateral ligament (LCL), but the severity seems to be in the grade 1/2 range, which is definitely something that can be played through. What RGIII loses with this injury is some stability in the knee when he cuts or twists, as the LCL is the ligament that connects the femur (thigh bone) to the tibia (shin bone) on the outside of the knee. So anytime a player has LCL involvement and tries to play through it, a brace of varying strength is involved. My expectation is that he will play this week, especially since the severity of the sprain is a grade 1 or 2, which is mild to moderate in nature. However, we’ll wait til Friday to see what his practice participation was like this week.

Quick Hits:

Jay Cutler suffered a “whiplash” type injury on Sunday, which is normally categorized as a muscular injury to the neck muscles. He should receive a ton of treatment this week to help decrease inflammation and soreness and should play this week…Jared Cook seems to have suffered a re-aggravation of his shoulder injury from early in the season. Watch out for him to be limited this week and his availability for Week 15 is up in the air…Ray Rice suffered a hip pointer that’s being classified as “minor”. Wait until later in the week to see if he practices or not this week, but with the Ravens in the thick of the home field advantage race, expect him to play. Click this link (http://tinyurl.com/benbhhw) and scroll down to the Hip Pointer paragraph to gain a better understanding of what this injury entails…Victor Cruz had a monster day on Sunday, but he also hurt his shoulder during the game, requiring sideline evaluation to determine the extent of the injury. He basically played the whole game otherwise, so expect him to be just fine. We’ll monitor it just in case…Dwayne Bowe has two fractured ribs, which means he’ll either be able to play through it and tolerate the pain or his season may be over. More information should come out this week…Marshawn Lynch flared up his low back a little bit during his standout game against the Cardinals. Remember, he’s dealt with back spasms all season and has basically been a “rest” scratch from every Wednesday practice this season. He’ll do the same deal this week and should be fine for Week 15, but back spasms are a tricky, fickle injury, so keep an eye on him…Darren McFadden practiced today, which is a great sign for his availability for Week 15 after re-aggravating his high ankle sprain this past Thursday. If he continues to increase his availability, he should be fine, but monitor his situation closely.

That should cover the biggies. If your leagues are anything like mine, tonight is a VERY important night. Not only are my Pats playing on MNF, but I also need Steven Ridley and Matt Schaub to have huge days and Wes Welker and the Houston Defense to do not so well. So here’s hoping the Pats win 52-45 (wishful thinking, I know).

Initial Reactions to Week 12 Injuries

As a way to make it up to you all (all 3 of you) for not posting this AM to prep you for the Week 12 slate, I’m going to do a quick rapid fire post on my initial thoughts about some important and significant injuries this weekend as we near the fantasy playoff season. 

Andre Brown: Initial thoughts are that he fractured his fibula, which is obviously a big time injury. I’ve talked in the past about how fibular fractures’ prognosis differ depending on the sport or activity level of the individual (https://ziaddahdul.wordpress.com/2012/11/05/fibular-fractures-why-you-should-pay-attention-to-steve-nash/). In Brown’s case, my first thought is that you can basically say goodbye to him contributing to your team for the 2012 fantasy season. 4 weeks (absolute, 100% best case scenario, and it’s still a long shot) puts us in Week 16, which is most people’s fantasy championship. Do you have the luxury of saving his roster spot just in case? If you don’t need his spot, by all means hang onto him. But I think his fantasy season is done. David Wilson is your pickup if you need the help.

Kendall Hunter: He suffered an ankle injury in the win over the Saints today. Not sure the extent of the injury and whether it’s a high ankle sprain/ankle sprain/fracture/midfoot injury/etc, but regardless, with him not returning to the game, the thought is that he’ll probably at least be out 1-2 weeks. The sneaky pickups become LaMichael James and/or Brandon Jacobs, who could both step in to spell Frank Gore should Hunter be out for a short or extended period of time.

Greg Jennings: I know he didn’t get hurt during Week 12, but he was so close to returning this week before the Pack ultimately decided to give him the inactive label. My expectation is that he’ll be back out there Week 13 and should be very valuable moving forward as the playoffs near. Besides a Week 15 tilt against Da Bears, he has very favorable match ups moving forward. I expect him to be healthy and ready to finish off the 2012 campaign with a bang.

Julio Jones: He looked pretty great today, running relatively smoothly and didn’t appear to have any setbacks throughout the course of the game. Remember, it’s a short week, with the Falcons playing the Saints on Thursday night. But with as good as he looked out there and Matt Ryan throwing the ball to the right team this week, expect Jones to be a bit closer to 100% on Thursday.

**My one caveat with short weeks: Just because you look good on Sunday doesn’t mean you’ll look even better the next time out. With any injury, a lot of guys can gut it out and get through the game unscathed. However, soreness following games (24-48 hours) is very, very common and is often expected when bouncing back from injuries. Always, always, always monitor status updates during the week and make sure he’s participating in practice to make sure he’ll play when Thursday rolls around.

Chicago Bears D/ST: With both Charles Tillman and Lance Briggs leaving Sunday’s game with injuries, keep an eye on how significant these injuries are. Tillman himself is responsible for 184 turnovers this year (rough estimate) and Briggs is key on run defense, which is a huge strength of this Bears’ D. Tillman was seen leaving the stadium in a walking boot, but this can absolutely be precautionary until more testing is done, so don’t read too much into that. Briggs left with a thumb injury, and unless it’s a fracture or a significant tendon/ligament tear, I can’t imagine he misses time. Wait and see with both of these guys.

Anyone Who Suffered a Concussion/Head Injury: Protocol for return to play will determine when these guys will come back. Teams and the league have done a great job of being cautious with these guys, so wait and see if they pass their IMPACT testing and are cleared by an Independent Neurologist prior to inserting anyone back into your lineup.

Setting Your Week 7 Lineup: Friday Injury News

Hakeem Nicks: Holy crap, he’s PROBABLE!! Nicks practiced again on Friday and looks to be ready to go this Sunday. I still think he’s going to have some rust and be somewhat limited since it’s both his foot and knee that he’s trying to bounce back from. However, look for him to get back involved in the offense, which decreases Domenik Hixon’s value this week. I think this is the time to get Nicks back in your lineup, especially with a very good matchup this week.

Ahmad Bradshaw: Bradshaw missed practice again on Friday and is officially listed as Questionable for Sunday’s game. I get scared anytime I hear Bradshaw and “foot” in the same sentence, as his foot issues have been well documented. I have a feeling he won’t play or won’t be productive if he does play, so I’d look for a fill in. Andre Brown is not a shoe in to play, so it may all fall on David Wilson, which can be a good or bad thing, depending on how you look at it. I think this development actually makes the Giants’ passing game that much more attractive this week. Look for Eli, Nicks, and Cruz to have big days.

Brandon Bolden: Hasn’t practiced all week with a knee injury. It’s hard to predict how a knee will respond during a game without getting him out there and practicing. (UPDATE: BOLDEN IS OUT THIS WEEK)All signs point to him not playing, so look for Danny Woodhead and Shane Vereen to split carries backing up Stevan Ridley. I actually like Woodhead a lot this week against the Jets, with his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield, as he will be named my SLEEPER O’ THE WEEK! (I swear to you, I’ll get one of these right at some point, so why not week 7?)

Jimmy Graham: Limited participant on Friday, which was expected. He’s officially Questionable, and although he seems like he has a good chance of suiting up on Sunday, there is some riskiness in that play. His mechanism of injury looked like it was similar to a high ankle sprain, although he did actually come back into the game after injuring the ankle. He wasn’t the same, but at least he was able to grit it out and still weight bear through the foot. He also had the luxury of a bye week right after, so he’s had adequate rest time. My hunch? He’ll play, but it wouldn’t be a bad idea to have a backup plan who plays at the same time, just in case.

Aaron Hernandez: He returned to practice on Friday after sitting out Thursday, so it’s looking more and more like yesterday’s missed practice was just a precaution after playing a decent amount of snaps on Sunday. The Jets’ D has been pretty kind to TEs this year and the Pats TE’s have always done well when lined up against the Jets’ LBs. I think Hernandez is in line to get closer to a regular amount of snaps this week, so use him as you normally would.

Terrell Suggs: So, he’s practiced three straight days, including Friday, which is looking better and better for Suggs’ return to the lineup. I’m going to preface all this by saying that an Achilles tendon rupture is a BRUTAL injury to come back from for the average person, let alone an elite athlete like Suggs. Add to that fact that he partially tore it, which can be worse than fully tearing it sometimes depending on how much of a partial tear it was, and the odds are definitely stacked against him. The reason a partial tear can be worse is that if >50% of the tendon is torn, but some fibers are still attached, the surgeons typically opt to repair the torn fibers and keep the intact ones as they are. The problem is that the intact fibers end up picking up so much of the slack that they have greater than normal forces imparted on them, essentially weakening the area that was originally strong. In addition, the rehab process can last longer because you’re dealing with half intact and half torn regions of the same tendon, which can make the healing process a bit trickier.

I understand the reasons he’s pushing so hard to come back, especially now with Ray Lewis and Ladarius Webb out for the season, and it’s very admirable. Typically, it’s anywhere from 8-9 months before someone can really be back to every day life without limitation, and Suggs is only 5+ months post surgery. I think he’s rushing, and I can’t imagine the training staff would let him come back this fast. I think he should be out until at least mid November at the earliest (I’ll give him 1-2 month leeway since he’s a such a freakish athlete), so don’t expect him to be the huge game-changer he has been in the past, at least right off the bat. I think the Baltimore D/ST will still struggle without Lewis and Webb, putting them more in the 10-12 range.

Christian Ponder: Apparently he’s just been dealing with a sore knee the last few weeks. He was a full participant today and is listed as Probable. He hasn’t looked limited during games, so this could be more of a precautionary thing by letting him rest Wed/Thu and then having a full practice Friday. Use him as you would.

Rashard Mendenhall: He didn’t practice Friday and reports came out that said he will NOT play Sunday night. Look for Jonathan Dwyer to get the majority of carries with Baron Batch contributing as well. This will probably be a “play the hot hand” type of scenario.

Adrian Peterson: He’s been dealing with a sore ankle all week, which is on the same side as his ACL reconstruction. He was a full participant in practice today and is listed as Probable. Reports said he looked ok during practice, moving around just fine. Make sure you watch for any news of a setback between now and kickoff, but he appears to be ready to go.

Vincent Jackson: Jackson is dealing with a calf strain, which seems to have worked it’s way out as he practiced fully today and was listed as Probable. Looks like it’s all systems go for Jackson, who is coming off a solid week and should benefit from Josh Freeman getting his head out of his you-know-what and finally having a productive day. And they’re playing the Saints, who haven’t decided whether they want to play defense or not this year.

Greg Jennings: What a nightmare, huh? So he’s officialy OUT again this week, as he seems to be having such a hard time shaking this groin strain. It’s getting to the point where you may need to think about parlaying some depth at other positions into some wideout help because there’s not even a guarantee he plays in week 8. Maybe targeting a WR2 type guy to help pick up the slack or trading an RB1/WR1/QB1 for two quality guys would be a good idea for the near future.

Wes Welker/Rob Gronkowski: Do I still need to say anything? They’ll both play, and I’m throwing in a little prediction here too: both will have 100+ yards and 1 TD each.

Jermichael Finley: Officially listed as probable, he looks like he’s ready to go. I still doubt he’s 100%, but word from practice is that this is the closest to 100% he’s been in a while. I think he’ll have a good game finally, especially with Jennings out this week and with a pretty good match up. I’d put him in the lineup this week.

Pierre Garcon: He had a setback during the week and has missed practices all week. He’s listed as doubtful, but I can tell you with certainty that he shouldn’t be in your line up this week. Find a fill in for him. Leonard Hankerson and Santana Moss stocks should go up.

Dez Bryant: He was fully healthy all week and managed to pop up onto the Friday injury report, as reports are he strained his groin muscle (see my previous posts related to Greg Jennings for more info on this injury). Hip muscle strains are tricky in general and when a muscle group like the hip adductors (groin) are injured, it changes things as this muscle group helps pull the leg towards to middle of your body and is a stabilizing muscle during quick, dynamic motions. And it’s NEVER a good sign when this type of thing happens the Friday before a game. I’m a little iffy on him for this week, so try your best to pick up Kevin Ogletree if he’s still out there. Looks like a gametime decision deal for Bryant this week, so have contingency plans just in case.

Injury Reactions from Week 5

Let’s do a quick rundown of injuries around the league and make some projections about availability for Week 6 and beyond:

Robert Griffin III: Suffered a concussion during the Week 5 contest, so his Week 6 availability will be predicated on him passing the battery of tests that have been put together for concussion sufferers. It’s murky at this point, and depending on the extent of the concussion, it’s kind of hard to predict. I’m sure he’ll go through the concussion tests around Wednesday of this week, so stay tuned. Have a backup plan this week, possibly a guy like Brandon Weeden, who had a solid start this past week.

Jermichael Finley: He drove his right shoulder into the turf after making a catch, and didn’t return to the game after. He said he would be playing for sure against the Texans in Week 6 and that he didn’t come back into the game as a precaution. I think he’s probably right, but the biggest thing is practice participation. From looking at the mechanism of injury, he seemed to have suffered an AC joint (point of the shoulder, the region referred to in separated shoulders) sprain, which can be played through, but is tough with a high contact position like TE.

Cedric Benson: Based on how the injury looked, everyone immediately thought Lisfranc injury. He stated after the game that X-Rays came back negative and that he feels better than it looked. He was seen leaving the stadium in a walking boot, which is absolutely precautionary for this type of injury, so I wouldn’t read a ton into that. Even if it’s just a midfoot sprain (small tears in the ligaments that hold the small bones of the foot together), it can be very limiting for a running back who relies on that stability of the arch and toes when pushing off and performing quick burst of speed motions. Granted Benson is not a burner or anything, but it’s still key to the effectiveness of running backs. He’s been ruled out of week 6 already, so backup plans are in order. Possible back up plan? Alex Green, who filled in admirably for Benson. Possibly David Wilson from the Giants, who got more touches this week and seems out of the doghouse.

Jimmy Graham: He suffered a nasty-looking ankle sprain in the Sunday night game against the Chargers. While he did return to the game, which is promising, he clearly didn’t look the same. He didn’t look to suffer a high ankle sprain, which is great news, and having a bye week this coming week, he should be fine for Week 7. Don’t be alarmed if he really doesn’t practice much at all this week, as it’ll be precautionary to give that ankle time to rest. I would expect him out there for Week 7 with minimal restrictions.

Troy Polamalu: He returned yesterday for the first time this season, played 19 snaps, and re-injured his problematic calf. Strains to the calf muscle are very similar in nature to hamstring strains, as they’re lingering types of injuries that don’t go away with rest. And the calf muscle is a very powerful muscle with sprinting, changing of speeds, and accelerating/decelerating. I don’t have a good feeling about Polamalu’s chances of playing this week and potentially next, unless he decides to play hurt and clearly less than 100%.

Rashard Mendenhall: I was a proponent of sitting him Sunday, and he definitely proved me wrong. He looked great, very explosive and elusive. He also seemed very comfortable with outside and inside runs, which is fantastic for a post-ACL player. So long as he doesn’t have any soreness or setbacks, he’s looking good moving forward.

Adrian Peterson: Mendenhall’s post-ACL brethren seemed to tweak his ankle on his first carry of the game Sunday, but did not miss any time. No word on whether it’s his post-ACL side or not, which could make a bit of a difference. But the fact that he still played the rest of the game bodes well. I can’t imagine he’ll miss any games, but he may be limited in practice this week, so don’t be alarmed.

Jared Cook: He seems 100% from his AC joint sprain, as he caught 5 passes for 37 yards and a TD on Sunday. Granted he didn’t have gaudy yards totals, but with Matt Hasselback at QB, he’s bound to be a bigger part of the plan as Hasselback doesn’t throw downfield a ton, leading to more check downs and short passes. Look for Cook to continue to be a big part of the offense.

Kenny Britt: Only caught 2 passes on Sunday, and he looked like he was clearly having a hard time moving around. I’ve warned many times about Britt and his multiple-joint involvement on his surgically-repaired side, which seems to really be bothering him. I’d continue to sit him until he gives you that one good, solid game where he doesn’t look like he’s hobbling around.

Matt Forte: He looked fantastic Sunday, and he has a bye week now to get back to 100%. He had 24 touches on Sunday, which should tell you that he’s pretty damn close to being back to full strength. He’ll be ready to go at full speed once Week 7 rolls around.

Alex Smith: Lost in his incredible 300+ yard performance was that fact that he sprained a finger on his throwing hand. He left the game after the result was determined, but who knows if he would have stayed in had the game been closer. I can’t imagine this will keep him from missing time, but he could potentially be limited in practice this week. Monitor the situation, as gripping the ball and releasing the ball when throwing could be uncomfortable and may cause some discomfort. But at this point, it doesn’t seem like enough to keep him from missing time.

Julio Jones: 10 catches, 94 yards, 1 TD. Do I even have to tell you his hand is fine?

Pierre Garcon: He led the team with 7 targets, which is a good sign. Bad news is only 3 went for catches. And now that RGIII is banged up, who knows what the passing game will look like with Kirk Cousins at the helm. Garcon didn’t seem restricted by his injury, so he should be fine in terms of his injury now that the soreness has subsided and he’s in less pain. Look for him to be ok health wise in the coming weeks, but RGIII being out concerns me more.

Daniel Thomas: He had a decent week 6, with 29 yards rushing and 1 TD on the ground. However, he suffered a concussion during the contest, which means he’ll have to go through and pass his battery of tests prior to being able to participate next week. Like all of our other concussion folks, monitor his test results and move forward accordingly. Reggie Bush is still the lead back, so upside for him may be limited.

Matt Cassel: He also suffered a head injury during Sunday’s contest, as he took a violent blow that reportedly knocked him unconscious for a little bit. I can’t speculate as to the severity of the head injury, but it sure did look bad. And they are so strict these days with coming back to play from concussions, any residual symptoms automatically make a player ineligible from returning to contact. Consider Cassel out with Brady Quinn the next in line.

Hakeem Nicks: The knee issue is starting to seem more serious by the day. He had an MRI done today, but results were not released by the team. Coach Coughlin says “he’s iffy” for this week against the Niners, so who knows what’s actually going to happen. We’ll take it day by day like last week, but at this point, the knee injury (whatever it is) seems to be worrisome. Plan on a Domenik Hixon/Reuben Randle duo again across from Victor Cruz.

Ryan Williams: He was placed on IR today after suffering a shoulder injury that will cause him to miss at least 3 months.The exact injury has not been disclosed, but they did say surgery will be required. My guess considering the timetable? Partial labral tear, maybe an AC joint separation, ligamentous damage around the glenohumeral joint (ball and socket shoulder joint). I would say rotator cuff as well, but if they have to repair it via surgery, the timetable is typically much more than 3 months. Same with a biceps tendon tear. Fact of the matter is, he’s out for the season, so who is the guy in the Cards’ backfield now? Well, Beanie Wells is still out, so is Larod Stephens-Howling, who could be back next week. That leaves William Powell and Alphonso Smith, which aren’t great options themselves. I’d probably say Powell is the guy, but it’s most definitely going to be a RB-by-committee situation, which is never good from a fantasy perspective. I think Stephens-Howling and Powell are good speculative pickups, but I’d just as well steer clear of this murky situation.