Lightning Round: Setting Your Week 5 Lineup

Saturday is upon us, so let’s do a quick rundown of who to play and who to sit to help you better maximize your week 5 lineup.

Absolute must starts:

Torrey Smith: The ankle is good to go, and so is he.

Rob Gronkowski: He played last week despite some hip soreness, he’ll do the same this week despite being questionable.

Marshawn Lynch: Back is good, and he’s well rested

Reggie Bush: No lingering knee or hip issues, he’s in for a big week against the Bengals.

Lesean McCoy: No worries here, he’s good

Trent Richardson: Only missed practice to see his daughter born, he’s healthy and ready to go.

Julio Jones: The hand is healed and healthy. Get him in your lineup.

Matt Forte: He’s looked dynamic all week, the ankle looks solid, Jags run D is not very good.

Chicago Bears D: Brian Urlacher and Julius Peppers are both a little dinged up, but both are reportedly playing tomorrow. Keep the top ranked D in your lineup.

Healthy Starts:

Jared Cook: He’s fully recovered from his AC joint sprain, he shouldn’t be limited at all.

Brandon Bolden: I’m only putting him here because he’s healthy enough to play, so that won’t be the issue. Who knows what the RB rotation will be like because it changes every week with the Pats, but if you’re in a deep league and were thinking about him as a Flex, don’t let health stop you. He should be good to go. Double check the inactive list prior to the late games to be sure.

Too Risky, Sit This Week:

Aaron Hernandez: I love him for next week, as he has really made strides (and I’m making a trip from LA to Seattle to watch my Pats take over the northwest, so I’m a bit hyped right now) coming off this high ankle sprain. There’s too much uncertainty surrounding Hernandez, with the Belichick-veil-of-secrecy, late game start time, and trickiness with high ankle sprains. Not worth the risk this week, unless you have the luxury of another TE who plays in the late games or Sunday night/Monday night that you can rush into your lineup once you find out Hernandez’s status. Otherwise, leave him on the bench.

Brandon Jacobs: He looks on track to play this week and is technically still the 3rd backfield option. I like him more as a stash than an actual start this week, only because I think he’ll play a big role in Jim Harbaugh’s offense. Monitor his effectiveness and carries this week and we’ll revisit next week.

Out:

Lance Moore: Has a good chance of coming back next week, hard to tell for sure with hammy injuries, but I think he comes back next week

New York Giants D: I think their entire team is Questionable. I know they’re playing the Browns, but with so many guys either out or clearly hobbled, I would look for a replacement if you have the luxury. A team like the New England D has been dropped by many after a couple bad games, but they’re forcing turnovers this year and have generated a much better pass rush with rookies Chandler Jones and Dont’a Hightower on board. I like them at home against Denver, Peyton Manning or not.

Hakeem Nicks: Monitor his availability this week, I said yesterday I don’t like how limited he’s been and their having him avoid weight bearing, so I don’t feel as good about him being back next week. Always a chance, but hard to say.

Ramses Barden: Never thought I’d have to include him in any of my posts, but stranger things have happened I guess. He didn’t practice at all this week and apparently did not pass his post-concussion battery of tests to return to play, so he’s out this week. Because Nicks and Barden are both out, look for Domenik Hixon to be very productive against a terrible Browns secondary still missing Joe Haden. I like Hixon as my SLEEPER O’ THE WEEK (I know, I’ve sucked at these so far, but Week 5 is the turn-around week, I swear)

Kenny Britt: He’s listed as questionable, not out, but I just wouldn’t touch him until he produces one productive game this season. Too many injuries, too much of a head case. Stay away.

Rashard Mendenhall: Another guy listed as probable, not out, I just have a rule not to play post-ACL guys in their first game back because of the inherent risk. I know AP came back and was great in his first game, but most of the time, you don’t know how a guy will respond to the other team hitting you and the return to game speed until they’re out there. He may be fine, but I’m just not taking the risk until his second week back.

Thursday Week 1 Updates

Rashard Mendenhall: Mike Tomlin refuses to lean one way or another in terms of Mendenhall’s status for Week 1. Regardless of the designation, I just can’t see him being ready to come back and play at this level so soon. Mendenhall has been quoted as being fired up and motivated to come back this week, but I just can’t see the training staff and Coach Tomlin risking big carries in Week 1, so even if he plays, expect 10 touches at the most.

Ryan Mathews: He’s participating in individual drills every day and has been much more active around the Chargers practice facility, but he still has not received clearance for contact. I like his long-term chances of playing a big role this season because they’re doing the right thing and giving that clavicle time to heal properly. Contact would be detrimental to his recovery and could set him back weeks, if not months, if he gets hit in the wrong spot. My gut feeling: He misses two weeks (which would put him roughly 6 weeks post-surgery, which was the original prognosis), gets clearance in the next 10 days or so, and comes back full bore for Week 3. Stay way this week for sure.

Austin Collie: Concussions are very tough to predict, in terms of both clearance to return and how they will respond to that first big hit. Even Collie himself isn’t 100% sure of what’s going to happen, because he was singing a different tune in the past few weeks. There seems to be an air of uncertainty surrounding Collie, which should scare you a bit in terms of him playing this week. I’m always weary of guys with chronic concussion issues, especially since he’s been down this road before: 2 concussions in 2010, 1 concussion in Week 2 of the 2012 preseason. He has been cleared to practice, which is a positive, but until I see him out there, take a couple hits, and bounce back up, I’d sit him.

Trent Richardson: He practiced today in full pads and seemed to come through it okay. Coach Shurmur made it sound like Richardson will be all systems go for Week 1, but no commitment was given in terms of touches/carries. Two surgeries in one year can sound tricky, but the most recent one (Aug 9th) was arthroscopic to clean out a “hang nail” piece of cartilage that was irritating the joint space of his knee. No setbacks (from either surgery) have been reported and numerous reports say he looked great in practice this week. Meniscal injuries are not terribly serious in the grand scheme of things, and this month he’s had off (he didn’t play a pre-season game) is more than enough recovery time for a routine scope. Gut feeling: I think he plays, and more than has been reported. I like him as a flex this week against the Eagles, so long as you don’t have a better option.

Denarius Moore: He returned to practice today, which is a welcome sign since he’s been out since August 4th. These tricky hamstring strains scare the crap out of me, especially with speed guys who’s primary job is to stretch the field. There is no widely regarded timetable for returning from hamstring strains, but this muscle group in particular seems to linger more than others because of how important it is for explosiveness off the line, changing directions, and slowing down. So essentially, it’s involved in all phases of being a WR. The Raiders play Monday, which is good because it gives him an extra day, but bad because you’re taking a big risk if you’re waiting to see if he plays since the majority of games will already be done. Avoid this week, revisit next week.

Lightning Round:

Marshawn Lynch: Still plagued by back spasms, I think he sits this week. Back spasm flare ups can be debilitating and really restrict motion and mobility.

Jonathan Stewart: No full practice participation, has missed two weeks of practice, Williams/Tolbert are both healthy, he sits and rests his sprained ankle this week and probably next as well

Brian Urlacher: He sat today, but was a full participant the last two days. I like the Bears D a ton this week and it looks like their anchor will be ready. Fearless prediction: Health + Colts O + Rookie QB = Top fantasy D this week

Stevie Johnson: Had some tightness of his surgically repaired groin, sat out practice today. He played all of last season with a strained groin, so this precaution shouldn’t scare you. Roll with Stevie J.