Initial Reactions to Week 12 Injuries

As a way to make it up to you all (all 3 of you) for not posting this AM to prep you for the Week 12 slate, I’m going to do a quick rapid fire post on my initial thoughts about some important and significant injuries this weekend as we near the fantasy playoff season. 

Andre Brown: Initial thoughts are that he fractured his fibula, which is obviously a big time injury. I’ve talked in the past about how fibular fractures’ prognosis differ depending on the sport or activity level of the individual (https://ziaddahdul.wordpress.com/2012/11/05/fibular-fractures-why-you-should-pay-attention-to-steve-nash/). In Brown’s case, my first thought is that you can basically say goodbye to him contributing to your team for the 2012 fantasy season. 4 weeks (absolute, 100% best case scenario, and it’s still a long shot) puts us in Week 16, which is most people’s fantasy championship. Do you have the luxury of saving his roster spot just in case? If you don’t need his spot, by all means hang onto him. But I think his fantasy season is done. David Wilson is your pickup if you need the help.

Kendall Hunter: He suffered an ankle injury in the win over the Saints today. Not sure the extent of the injury and whether it’s a high ankle sprain/ankle sprain/fracture/midfoot injury/etc, but regardless, with him not returning to the game, the thought is that he’ll probably at least be out 1-2 weeks. The sneaky pickups become LaMichael James and/or Brandon Jacobs, who could both step in to spell Frank Gore should Hunter be out for a short or extended period of time.

Greg Jennings: I know he didn’t get hurt during Week 12, but he was so close to returning this week before the Pack ultimately decided to give him the inactive label. My expectation is that he’ll be back out there Week 13 and should be very valuable moving forward as the playoffs near. Besides a Week 15 tilt against Da Bears, he has very favorable match ups moving forward. I expect him to be healthy and ready to finish off the 2012 campaign with a bang.

Julio Jones: He looked pretty great today, running relatively smoothly and didn’t appear to have any setbacks throughout the course of the game. Remember, it’s a short week, with the Falcons playing the Saints on Thursday night. But with as good as he looked out there and Matt Ryan throwing the ball to the right team this week, expect Jones to be a bit closer to 100% on Thursday.

**My one caveat with short weeks: Just because you look good on Sunday doesn’t mean you’ll look even better the next time out. With any injury, a lot of guys can gut it out and get through the game unscathed. However, soreness following games (24-48 hours) is very, very common and is often expected when bouncing back from injuries. Always, always, always monitor status updates during the week and make sure he’s participating in practice to make sure he’ll play when Thursday rolls around.

Chicago Bears D/ST: With both Charles Tillman and Lance Briggs leaving Sunday’s game with injuries, keep an eye on how significant these injuries are. Tillman himself is responsible for 184 turnovers this year (rough estimate) and Briggs is key on run defense, which is a huge strength of this Bears’ D. Tillman was seen leaving the stadium in a walking boot, but this can absolutely be precautionary until more testing is done, so don’t read too much into that. Briggs left with a thumb injury, and unless it’s a fracture or a significant tendon/ligament tear, I can’t imagine he misses time. Wait and see with both of these guys.

Anyone Who Suffered a Concussion/Head Injury: Protocol for return to play will determine when these guys will come back. Teams and the league have done a great job of being cautious with these guys, so wait and see if they pass their IMPACT testing and are cleared by an Independent Neurologist prior to inserting anyone back into your lineup.

Week 6 Injury Round Up

Let’s take a look at some key injuries for the upcoming week and some possible solutions for your lineup issues:

Jermichael Finley: He suffered a slightly separated AC joint on Sunday (based on the term slightly, I’d imagine it’s a grade 1) that he feels he can play through. He won’t attempt to practice until tomorrow, so we won’t know for sure whether he can even take the contact until then. I’m thinking there’s a chance he plays on Sunday, but my only issue is that when someone doesn’t even try to practice all week, it normally means there’s something they’re concerned about. I see him becoming a game time decision, which is no bueno considering they play the Texans on Sunday night. Make sure you have a backup plan, but I’d just as well roll with another guy because of the risk.

Greg Jennings: Another guy who won’t practice until tomorrow, who knows how this guy’s groin is feeling. It’s been a frustrating start for Jennings’ owners and this lingering groin strain is a real issue. He’s had a lot of time to rest, so that bodes well. If he can participate tomorrow pretty fully and not have any setbacks, I like his chances to play. Just know these muscular injuries can rear their ugly heads at any time, so be prepared. He basically needs to come through one full game without a “tweak” to feel better about things.

Alex Smith: The middle finger on his throwing hand seems like it’s not a factor, so he should be good to go. The only concern would be if he took another shot to the hand during the game, but that can happen at any time. There haven’t been any reports of swelling or range of motion issues, so if you normally play him, he should be good.

Hakeem Nicks: Today’s a big day for Nicks, as he’s supposed to give practice a go. He did some running and rehab type things on Wednesday, which is a great sign. Look for him to be limited today, with the possibility of ramping up to full participation on Friday. If he comes through today’s practice without issue in the foot or knee, I like his chances. More will be known tomorrow.

Brandon Jacobs: He practiced fully on Wednesday, but he also practiced every freakin day last week and was still inactive. I don’t know if it’s more a numbers issue in terms of his spot on the depth chart than anything else, but you probably shouldn’t be relying on him this week anyways. I still think he can be a valuable stash for later in the year, but if you’re like me and have injury/bye week issues, you may not have the luxury of a stash.

William Powell: He suffered a head injury, which could means tons of things, but he has practiced fully all week so far and hasn’t been reported as being limited at all. I actually think Powell is a better overall back than LaRod Stephens-Howling, only because Stephens-Howling is built more like a change of pace back. I can envision Powell playing on 1st and 2nd downs while Stephens-Howling is the 3rd down guy. But who knows. Either way, they both have a fantastic matchup this week against Buffalo, so they are both solid bye week fill-ins.

Marshawn Lynch: The sore back is back! Lunch was limited in practice on Wednesday and continues to be plagued by his balky back. It’s beginning to get a little sticky for Lynch, as he rested all last week and still came out of it with sore back this week. We’ll take a look at his participation this week and see where it takes him. He has a decent matchup, as the Pats are more of a bend-but-don’t-break type of defense, which lends itself to gaudy yardage totals. We’ll keep posted on his situation.

Wes Welker/Rob Gronkowski: Both were limited participants, Welker with an ankle issue and Gronk with a hip issue, but 1/2 the Pats roster was limited, so I wouldn’t worry. Both should be good to go Sunday.

Miles Austin: Coming off the bye week, Austin appears to be pretty healthy overall. He practiced fully yesterday and hasn’t had any setbacks yet after being plagued with hamstring issues. He seems like he’s finally rounding into form, and if you know anything from reading my posts, muscular injuries respond very well to rest and rehab, which Austin was able to do all week during the bye. I expect him to come out the gates strong and have a big game this Sunday.

Darrius Heyward-Bey: He practiced fully yesterday and seems to be on track to play this weekend. His concussion did look bad when it happened, but coming off a bye week and having a few weeks to recuperate, it looks like he should be fine. I’m sure they’ll monitor him well this week, but barring a setback, he should be out there.

Robert Griffin III: Although he did practice on Wednesday, taking part in team drills, he still has not been cleared for contact. Once cleared, he will probably need at least 1 day of full practice to be ready to go. I expect that day to be Friday. Look for him to take it slow, but barring any new issues popping up, he seems on track to play this Sunday.

LaRod Stephens-Howling: I talked about the Cards RB situation above with William Powell, but I think LSH (I got tired of typing his whole name, sorry) should be  good to go this week coming off a hip injury. I was not able to find out exactly what the injury was, but it appeared that he was moving around well at practice yesterday and didn’t look limited. In terms of the backfield timeshare, I think both will get chances, but LSH is much better catching the ball out of the backfield as a change of pace, so I like Powell to be the lead guy and LSH to be the 3rd down/end of half guy. I think both have value and we’ll know more after Sunday’s game, but I project Powell’s value slightly higher than LSH.

Ben Tate: Still limited in practice by turf toe, he is looking like another game time decision, which doesn’t bode well because he is involved in the Sunday night game. Same thing happened this past week with the Texans playing on Monday night, but there appears to be more optimism that he plays this week. Risky if you don’t have a backup plan playing for the Packers or on Monday night, so it may not be worth the risk. Foster is still the guy anyways, so another option may be better.

Andre Johnson: While he hasn’t been quite the same this season, I can’t say it looks like it’s because of his groin issue. He seems to be drawing a ton of attention from opposing defenses due to a lack of WR threat on the opposite side. He was limited yesterday in practice, but that’s very normal with guys who have nagging injuries, as Wednesday seems to be rest day. Friday will tell us more, as I expect him to progress his way to full participation by end of week if he’s good to go on Sunday.

AJ Green: He seems to be dealing with a bit of a knee issue, which is interesting considering he had his ankle re-taped on Sunday in the 2nd half of the game against the Dolphins. Although the ankle was the issue, he seems to have developed a bit of a knee problem, which is not uncommon considering he did continue to play through the ankle issue on Sunday. When we play through pain and injury, we tend to place more stress and strain on other regions of our body to make up for the injured region, in this case Green’s ankle. I can’t see this being any more than some knee soreness, so I don’t think he’s in any danger of missing this week. But just in case, check out his status on Friday.

Ryan Mathews: He didn’t practice Wednesday, but took “mental reps” instead. Ya, not sure what that means either. But with the Chargers playing on Monday night this week, Thursday-Saturday will be the important days. Look for him to ramp up participation this week and be fully active by Saturday.

Aaron Hernandez: He practiced again on Wednesday and has been out there for 3 straight days now (2 last week, 1 this week). He’s looking good for this Sunday against Seattle and should blend back in seamlessly to his hybrid role in the Pats offense. With high ankle sprains, rest is a big factor early on, and I think the Pats did a fantastic job of not trying to rush him back (Having another TE like Gronk helps). He has been reported as looking quick and sharp with all cutting and mobility, so there’s not reason to believe he won’t suit up this week. Barring a set back, I’d put him in your lineup this week.

Lightning Round: Setting Your Week 5 Lineup

Saturday is upon us, so let’s do a quick rundown of who to play and who to sit to help you better maximize your week 5 lineup.

Absolute must starts:

Torrey Smith: The ankle is good to go, and so is he.

Rob Gronkowski: He played last week despite some hip soreness, he’ll do the same this week despite being questionable.

Marshawn Lynch: Back is good, and he’s well rested

Reggie Bush: No lingering knee or hip issues, he’s in for a big week against the Bengals.

Lesean McCoy: No worries here, he’s good

Trent Richardson: Only missed practice to see his daughter born, he’s healthy and ready to go.

Julio Jones: The hand is healed and healthy. Get him in your lineup.

Matt Forte: He’s looked dynamic all week, the ankle looks solid, Jags run D is not very good.

Chicago Bears D: Brian Urlacher and Julius Peppers are both a little dinged up, but both are reportedly playing tomorrow. Keep the top ranked D in your lineup.

Healthy Starts:

Jared Cook: He’s fully recovered from his AC joint sprain, he shouldn’t be limited at all.

Brandon Bolden: I’m only putting him here because he’s healthy enough to play, so that won’t be the issue. Who knows what the RB rotation will be like because it changes every week with the Pats, but if you’re in a deep league and were thinking about him as a Flex, don’t let health stop you. He should be good to go. Double check the inactive list prior to the late games to be sure.

Too Risky, Sit This Week:

Aaron Hernandez: I love him for next week, as he has really made strides (and I’m making a trip from LA to Seattle to watch my Pats take over the northwest, so I’m a bit hyped right now) coming off this high ankle sprain. There’s too much uncertainty surrounding Hernandez, with the Belichick-veil-of-secrecy, late game start time, and trickiness with high ankle sprains. Not worth the risk this week, unless you have the luxury of another TE who plays in the late games or Sunday night/Monday night that you can rush into your lineup once you find out Hernandez’s status. Otherwise, leave him on the bench.

Brandon Jacobs: He looks on track to play this week and is technically still the 3rd backfield option. I like him more as a stash than an actual start this week, only because I think he’ll play a big role in Jim Harbaugh’s offense. Monitor his effectiveness and carries this week and we’ll revisit next week.

Out:

Lance Moore: Has a good chance of coming back next week, hard to tell for sure with hammy injuries, but I think he comes back next week

New York Giants D: I think their entire team is Questionable. I know they’re playing the Browns, but with so many guys either out or clearly hobbled, I would look for a replacement if you have the luxury. A team like the New England D has been dropped by many after a couple bad games, but they’re forcing turnovers this year and have generated a much better pass rush with rookies Chandler Jones and Dont’a Hightower on board. I like them at home against Denver, Peyton Manning or not.

Hakeem Nicks: Monitor his availability this week, I said yesterday I don’t like how limited he’s been and their having him avoid weight bearing, so I don’t feel as good about him being back next week. Always a chance, but hard to say.

Ramses Barden: Never thought I’d have to include him in any of my posts, but stranger things have happened I guess. He didn’t practice at all this week and apparently did not pass his post-concussion battery of tests to return to play, so he’s out this week. Because Nicks and Barden are both out, look for Domenik Hixon to be very productive against a terrible Browns secondary still missing Joe Haden. I like Hixon as my SLEEPER O’ THE WEEK (I know, I’ve sucked at these so far, but Week 5 is the turn-around week, I swear)

Kenny Britt: He’s listed as questionable, not out, but I just wouldn’t touch him until he produces one productive game this season. Too many injuries, too much of a head case. Stay away.

Rashard Mendenhall: Another guy listed as probable, not out, I just have a rule not to play post-ACL guys in their first game back because of the inherent risk. I know AP came back and was great in his first game, but most of the time, you don’t know how a guy will respond to the other team hitting you and the return to game speed until they’re out there. He may be fine, but I’m just not taking the risk until his second week back.

Friday Injury News

Friday is typically the most important day in terms of a player’s likelihood to play on Sunday (Saturday is the day for Monday night games). So practice participation today is key, so let’s take a look at some key injuries and the chance of them playing in Week 5 (designation in parentheses:

Brandon Jacobs (Q): He hasn’t played all season after injuring his knee in the preseason, but the specifics are not well known. MRI showed that he had no structural damage, which likely means a bone bruise of some sort or maybe ligament sprain. The Niners weren’t going to let Jacobs come back until he practiced fully the whole week, and this week appears to be it. He’s 3rd in the backfield pecking order, but he was signed to be Frank Gore’s change-of-pace backup, which Kendall Hunter is not. So I think he’s a good speculative pickup this week as he looks healthy, doing wind sprints and practicing fully in pads. I wouldn’t play him this week, but he may be a nice deep league add if you need RB help.

Kenny Britt (Q): Britt sprained his ankle initially a few weeks ago, but seemed to tweak it again yesterday in practice. The thought is he won’t play this week, but he’s leaving the door open. Put it this way: He’s coming back from ACL reconstruction, he’s sprained the ankle on that same side, and now he reinjured the ankle at practice speeds. What does this tell you? There’s still something going on that’s causing him to compensate at other joints, but now he’s compromised at two joints in the leg, which could lead to a significant amount of instability up the kinetic chain (this is the link between all the joints from the ground up the leg, into the hip, etc). You should be sitting him this week and for all upcoming weeks until he can actually play a game and come out of it looking healthy.

Jared Cook (P): He practiced fully today, which is great news for his chances of being 100% this Sunday. I think he actually has a shot to have a big game now that Chris Johnson finally showed up and with one less mouth to feed (Britt) in the WR corp. Look for him to be unrestricted and ready to go.

Rashard Mendenhall (P): Practiced fully again, which means he’s looking like a go for this week. Play him at your own risk, but I’d still bench him until he shows me something out on the field. My rule of thumb is always to sit a guy their first week back and proceed according to how they look in that first game. Mendenhall is no different.

Torrey Smith (P): Practiced fully all week, sprained ankle looks good. He’s good to go.

Pierre Garcon (P): He looks like he’s on track to play this weekend against the Falcons, who despite being 4-0 are not playing a ton of D. He’s slowly played more snaps each game he’s been out there, but he himself acknowledged that he was not 100% yet, even though he can play at 100% during each play (not sure how much sense that makes). I think he’ll be more productive this weekend as he and RGIII have developed a good chemistry so far. He looks to be a solid WR3 this week.

Aaron Hernandez (Q): He practiced today and has looked pretty good, based on reports, cutting and moving more freely than anyone expected. This week would be his 3rd missed game, so I’m still skeptical that someone can be 100% in 3 weeks coming back from a high ankle sprain. I still think he sits this week, but it’s encouraging that he has gotten better so quickly. Week 6 seems much more realistic, so he should be on your bench this week (he’ll be on mine).

Marshawn Lynch (P): He was a full participant today, with his injury being described as Rest. Seems like the Seahawks were just buying him some time and that his back spasms didn’t flare up. Play him confidently.

Ryan Tannehill (P): He was a late add to the injury report with a right thumb sprain (throwing hand). It appears that he practiced fully, but may have hit his hand on a helmet or something of that nature. I think the injury report is more of a precaution, but he should be out there this week coming off a career game. Play him if you normally would.

Reggie Bush (P): His knee is reportedly fine and his hip has been pain-free all week, so he looks ready to go. He actually looked fine this past week, not missing any time after than knee injury scare. He was running well and looked like his dynamic self, so I’d feel good playing him this week. Nothing that I’ve heard or seen leads me to believe that he’ll be restricted at all, so have at it.

Ben Tate (Q): His sprained toe kept him out of practice today, and missing a Friday practice is never a good sign. I’d be suspicious about his probability of playing this week, but since they play Monday, wait until tomorrow and see if he participates. If he’s limited or doesn’t practice, I’d sit him since it’s pretty risky to wait on a Monday nighter since you won’t have many options otherwise. I don’t think the risk matches the reward, so I’d bench him.

Stephen Hill (Q): Well, not the rookie season we were hoping for. He came out like gangbusters in Week 1 and hasn’t played since. He has a hamstring strain that’s been plaguing him all season, and it doesn’t really seem like it’s going away anytime soon. I’ve stated numerous times how tricky these hamstring injuries are, and sometimes, depending on the location of the strain, the severity of the strain, and whether there was a prior history of hamstring pathology. Not sure in Hill’s case if there is a past history of hamstring issues, but this one seems to be a doozy. He was a non-participant again in practice, and even though he plays Monday night, put him in the same category as Ben Tate above: not worth the risk of waiting.

Hakeem Nicks (O): We know Nicks is out this week, that’s for sure. Just wanted to update to say that he had very limited participation, riding the bike and doing some stretching and participating in some team activities. While this is a good sign, one observation I wanted to mention was that the stationary bike for his kind of injury makes me think they’re just trying to limit his amount of weight bearing as much as possible, which leads me to believe that there’s some sort of bony pathology going on. I don’t like the sound of it, but the activity level is promising. Obviously, plan B needs to be in effect this week, but next week is still a possibility.

Lance Moore (O): My, how much things can change in one week. At first, reports were he had a mild hamstring strain. 4 days later, he’s labeled out. Maybe he had a setback during the week while trying to practice, or maybe they underestimated the extent and severity of the strain. Who knows? The fact of the matter is these hamstring strains are hard to predict, but hopefully one full week of rest and rehab will do him some good.

That’s it for today. I’ll make more updates via my Twitter feed @z_dahdul as more news becomes available. Good luck with Week 5 and beyond!