What to do with AP and his ACL?

One of the most interesting story lines this fantasy season is where Adrian Peterson gets drafted. Normally, he’s a bonafide top 2 pick who ALWAYS produces at those levels. He’s about as close to a given as it gets. However, with AP coming off a torn ACL at the end of last season, things are a bit different these days.

The injury:What exactly does it mean to tear an ACL? Well, the ACL, or anterior cruciate ligament, basically stops your tibia (shin bone) from moving forward on your thigh bone (femur). This is important to any athlete who participates in dynamic, cutting sports like football. AP had his ACL reconstructed and the timetable is normally anywhere frm 5-8 months before you can BEGIN football-related activities. Since AP is an extraordinary athlete, he bounced back quickly. But since APs game is very predicated on making people miss, pushing off an accelerating, it’s difficult to tell how quickly he will be able to regain the form he has had since his rookie season.

Fantasy effect:Last year, AP was the 1st or 2nd pick in the draft pretty much across the board, and rightfully so. This year is a bit different. Draft position for him has been a little all over the place, some in the late 2nd round and others in the late 3rd/early 4th. In terms of ACL recovery, it typically takes at least 1 full year before you feel like yourself again. As an example, look at Wes Welker’s year 1 post-ACL and year 2 post-ACL numbers:

2010-11: 86 receptions, 848 yards, 9.9 YPC, 7 TDs

2011-12: 122 receptions, 1,569 yards, 12.9 YPC, 9 TDs

Just watching Welker the last two years, he never looked fully comfortable that first year back, coming out of his cuts slowly and not planting-and-pushing off as he did before. Last year he looked like the old Welker again, increasing his catches by over 30%.

The moral of the story: Be cautious with any skills player year 1 post-ACL. And with AP, drafting him as your top back comes with inherent risk, so a handcuff in the 7th/8th round with Toby Gerhart would be a smart way to go about hedging your bets.

UPDATE: 4:41pm Chris Mortensen‏ @mortreport: Vikings fans will see Adrian Peterson in full uniform Friday night – he’ll participate in pre-game warmups at the Metrodome.

Analysis:  Looks like AP is getting his first go at it this week. Watch closely and let’s see how tentative he looks. The better he looks, the happier you have to feel about having him produce for you.