In most standard leagues, the focus is on drafting a top flight running back or two to anchor your team. In PPR leagues, the idea is to load up on pass-catching backs and high-target receivers in order to rack up those valuable reception points. I don’t know about you, but I don’t know many leagues that were won by teams with Matt Moore or Sage Rosenfels as their starting QBs. This year, more than ever, it’s imperative to land a top flight QB with the NFL increasingly becoming a pass-dominated league. Here’s a run down of some QBs coming off injury who can play a big role in your fantasy season.
THE CULPRITS
Michael Vick: Been there, done that right?? Whether it’s worrying about his hand in week 1 of the preseason or his ribs in week 2, there’s always some sort of issue going on with this guy. The allure of Vick is obvious: the rushing TDs, the rifle arm, deep threats at his disposal. These are the things that make his ceiling Empire State Building-high. But then you think about the drawbacks: 12, 12, and 13 games in each of the last three seasons, big holes in the O-line, repeat injuries (hands, ribs). Vick is the poster-child for risk/reward at the top of the draft. In my opinion, when you spend a 1st or 2nd round pick, you expect guaranteed production. In my experience with rib issues, especially with athletes playing contact sports, they not only are poor healers because of decreased blood supply, but are in an inherently vulnerable position for throwers that rely on trunk rotation to succeed. In addition, Vick has clearly demonstrated he will not change how he plays: there is no sliding feet first or running out of bounds. If you can get Vick as the 8th-10th QB taken in the 3rd-4th round, I’m game as long as you draft a solid back up you can rely on week in and week out. If there’s a run of QBs and you’re looking at him in the 2nd round, I’d recommend passing on him and going with a less risky choice in the all important 2nd round. Know the risk and be prepared to scour the waiver wire if you don’t tread lightly.
Peyton Manning: 4 neck surgeries. Took a full season off. Reports of decreased throwing velocity. PLENTY of red flags. We know who Peyton is when he’s right: arguably one of the best QBs of all time. Cervical spine fusions are not easy to recover from, as you don’t tend to see them in a population as young as Manning is. The fusion does exactly what it sounds like it would do: fuses joints together, meaning you lose basically all movement at the levels that are fused. Since each level of the spine accounts for approximately 9 degrees of rotational motion, Manning has lost approximately 18 degrees of motion in each direction. This loss of mobility can be made up for by other levels of the spine, but quite frankly, this isn’t even his biggest issue. What happens when Manning gets blindsided and has a whiplash-like force imparted on him? Has 6 guys piled on top of him after getting sacked? QB sneaks from the 1 yard line and gets stonewalled? We just don’t know. There aren’t a lot of 35 year old QBs helming a playoff team running around out there. Too much risk, too much uncertainty. I’d steer clear, even in rounds 3-5.
Ben Roethlisberger: Big Ben has definitely had enough time to recover from the high ankle sprain that plagued him last year, as there were numerous reports that he put on a walking boot and gave the ankle a chance to breathe. Earlier this month, reports came out that Big Ben has a “little” rotator cuff tear. To set the record straight, “partial” tears do exist and come in a variety of shapes and sizes. Partial tears can heal with decreased activity and good therapy, which I’m positive Ben has privy to. Can the small tear become a larger tear? Absolutely. All it would take is one defender hitting Ben’s arm as he’s releasing the ball to really do some damage. But rotator cuff tear or not, that’s true of any QB who’s been throwing year-long for 20+ years. I think Big Ben can be had relatively cheaply. He’s currently the 11th-14th QB being taken, somewhere around pick #80. That’s great value for someone of his stature. If you don’t want to draft Big Ben because of his shoddy O-line, a lack of Mike Wallace/Rashard Mendenhall, or the fact that Issac Redamn (yes, I said it) is his starting back, I’m ok with that. But don’t let the injuries stop you from getting great mid round value.
Matt Schaub: Schaub suffered a Lisfranc injury in Week 10 last season, ending his season and forcing him to watch the Texans first playoff game in franchise history from the sidelines. This type of injury occurs at the midfoot when the metatarsals (long finger-like bones) in the foot either are fractured and/or the ligaments that hold these bones in place are torn, causing instability in the middle of the foot. This is crucial in football players because they basically lose their arch support and can no longer transfer energy from the calf to the forefoot, which is how we run/shift weight/cut. Schaub’s no Usain Bolt, but for eluding pass rush and movement within the pocket, this lack of stability is huge. It’s not known whether he had a fracture or not, which makes it a bit harder to predict, but guys like Dwight Freeney have come back to relatively the same level and he relied greatly on his speed. Schaub’s main concern should be the significant emphasis his team places on the running game and the fragile nature of his top receiver, Andre Johnson. This may be the season where he finally leads a team to playoffs, especially if teams key in on stopping the running game and leave his outside threats open. Draft Schaub with confidence, especially given the value as the 13th-15th QB being drafted. Expect a resurgence this year from Mr. Schaub.
UPDATE (8/25/12) 5:15pm: Boy does Schaub look good in his week 3 start versus New Orleans. Moving well in the pocket. He even had a bootleg and scramble where he looked nimble. His foot looks like it’s unrestricted as he does seem to have a limp or to be avoiding planting off the surgically repaired food. He’s going to have Top 10 value this year, esp with Andre Johnson healthy.
Ziad Dahdul 